Four fixtures into the season and United have two draws, a painful loss to a traditional foe and just a narrow one-goal win. Fellow 'Big Four' members Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool have signaled their intent and are already heading the table, with United languishing in the bottom half. Sounds familiar? The last time this scenario took place, critics were saying that the club was in crisis, unable to accommodate all its stars in the starting lineup and lacking a killer instinct in front of goal. Nobody needs reminding how that season ended as Sir Alex Ferguson ultimately had the last laugh. So is this a sign of déjà vu, or was destiny simply favouring United last season, in the 40th anniversary of the Munich air crash? Here are 5 key factors which will influence the destination of the Premier League trophy come May.
1. Sir Alex Ferguson announced after that rainy night in Moscow that he would be stepping down within the next 3 years. He has more than accomplished his initial goal when he came to Old Trafford, of knocking Liverpool off their f***ing perch: 10 unanswered league titles to Liverpool's zero, 2 European Cups, and a dazzling array of other domestic and continental honours. However, he knows that the final seal on his personal conquest of Liverpool is to match and eventually eclipse their 18 league titles.
United currently stand at 17 titles and Sir Alex knows that now is the time to achieve that historic 18th and even 19th title, before he finally retires from the game. His hunger alone will be able to fire his charges and wake them up from their slumber. On the other hand, his obsession with the European Cup is probably stronger than winning more league titles, and who can blame him? Though he has achieved the rare feat of being crowned domestic and European champions not once but twice, it is anybody’s guess where his priorities lie this season. On one hand is the opportunity to nail the final wound in the hearts of Liverpool fans with the 18th title. On the other is the chance to write another chapter in United’s history, of being the first club ever to successfully defend their Champions’ League crown.
There is no doubting his hunger and his abilities. Adversaries such Gerard Houllier, Kevin Keegan and Jose Mourinho have come and gone. Granted he has a far-from-perfect track record, stained by frequent incursions with the FA and a list of dodgy signings (Kleberson, Veron, Djemba-Djemba, Taibi). But at the end of the day, he somehow always comes up tops. Many a United fan questioned his tactics in the first-leg of last season’s duel with Barcelona, but United ultimately scrapped through to the final.
How United will respond from their early season slumber rests on the shoulders of their biggest asset – their manager. As I learnt from a joke told by our guide during a tour of Old Trafford, sponsors AIG are simply lending their brand for the true abbreviation that Alex Is God.
2. Cristiano Ronaldo is the engine that drives the Red juggernaut. Sorry to disappoint fellow United fans, but it is a fact that United are a completely different team without him. Proof? Just look at the team’s performances so far this season, and compare that to Ronaldo’s cameo against Villareal. It’s not just his silky skills, bravery to take on defenders and eye for goal that make the difference. The boy has matured to such an extent, that his direct attacking style (as opposed to his early days of just tricks and stepovers) instills fear in opponents and lifts the tempo of the game. His importance to United has increased to such an extent that his mere presence can inspire the whole team.
As such, Sir Alex’s greatest transfer coup this summer was not getting Berbatov, but keeping Ronaldo. The sooner Ronaldo regains his match fitness the better for United. His professionalism and commitment to the club has been vouched for by Sir Alex himself, so there is no reason why he can’t have another magnificent season. However, the team's performances on the pitch will also have a feedback on his motivation. If United aren’t going to be in the hunt for honours come February or March, it is hard to see Ronaldo firing himself up and going on a one-man scoring mission as he accomplished so often in the last two seasons.
This brings us to Dimitar Berbatov and how Sir Alex can fit his awesome foursome together. The latest arrival seems to be the odd one out with his languid style, and his two performances in a Red shirt thus far would worry any United fan. In sharp contrast to Rooney and Tevez, who are all fired up and always willing to defend from the front, Berbatov has only shown glimpses of his skill and drifted out for large periods. Rather than the fearsome goalscorer adored at White Hart Lane, he has resembled Ruud van Nistelrooy in his last months as a United player.
Sir Alex must have the courage to drop one (or perhaps two) out of the four in his starting lineup. It’s not the first time he’s had such a headache, with a similar situation happening in the Treble season with Cole, Yorke, Sheringham and Solskjaer. For me, Tevez and Ronaldo should be the automatic names on the teamsheet. Sir Alex is unlikely to leave his new expensive signing on the bench, even if his early performances merit that decision. This leaves Rooney as the one to be left out. His form has been erratic and he has seemingly lost his ability to scare defenders, being preoccupied with defending and trying to be in too many places at one time.
Rooney is a big problem that has to be solved, and possibly dropped no matter how talented he is. In the last Chelsea-United match, his late challenge on Joe Cole gifted Chelsea the free-kick from which they equalized. That was two points dropped and a missed opportunity to gain a mental advantage over Chelsea. All because Rooney was in the wrong place and losing his mind. Once again.
3. The old guard that has served the club so faithfully has shown signs of wear and tear recently. There has to come a point where Sir Alex has to realize that he can no longer depend on them for 50-odd appearances each. The good thing is that the young talent is there to replace them. The worrying is that Sir Alex does not seem to have as much faith in the youngsters as the fans themselves.
Let’s start from the back. Edwin van der Sar was the penalty king last season (and so too in this season’s Community Shield). However his displays this season have not helped those fans with a weak heart. Punching balls that he could catch, trying to gather balls from crosses and missing them altogether, poor communication with defenders. A few of the goals conceded this season can rightly be blamed on him. His understudies Tomas Kuszczak and Ben Foster have proved to be reliable backups when called upon last season. Perhaps it may be a good thing that Edwin is retiring at the end of the season. But until then, Sir Alex should not be sentimental and let true form determine his choice between the posts.
Club captain Gary Neville missed almost the whole of last season, while Wes Brown has came in and done a fantastic job. One wonders how Neville got the nod ahead of Brown in recent games, especially since Brown was United’s highest appearances player last season. This suspicion was vindicated by one incident in the Chelsea game, where Neville lost out so badly to Anelka in a dash for the ball (mind you, he was already ahead by quite a bit) and completely mistimed the subsequent tackle. Being club captain does not render one the right to march straight back into the starting lineup. While Neville still has his intensity and drive intact, he has lost much of his speed and awareness. It will be interesting to watch if Sir Alex continues to show loyalty to his captain, or make the right decision of choosing Brown. Fabio Capello has already shown his preference, so why should Sir Alex think otherwise.
Paul Scholes is probably the sole member of the old guard who still merits a place in the starting XI. His footballing brain and passing ability are still flourishing, but there is a greater need to play him only in big games, or to bring on someone younger as he tires. in games To his credit, Sir Alex has planned this long ago with Fletcher, Anderson and Hargreaves all more than able to do the running and chasing for the Ginger Genius. Perhaps Scholes himself should restrain himself from picking up fouls, cards and suspensions, with his peerless skill of mistiming tackles.
Lastly Ryan Giggs himself, who should be hungry for an 11th league title to match his jersey number. He’s now no longer a starter, which is probably a good thing, after his latest gaffe against Mascherano handed Liverpool three points on a silver plate. Instead his role now is to bring attacking impetus and creativity when brought on in the late stages of a game. Giggs has lost a lot of his speed, but is still very much a master of the first touch, dribble and feint. Coolly dispatching the winning penalty in Moscow also proves that he still has those nerves of steel when it's crunch time.
While the old guard could prove to be liabilities, it is up to Sir Alex to determine the best way to utilize their strengths. There is no doubt that come ‘squeaky bum’ time, the presence of these battle-hardened warriors is one advantage that their rivals do not possess.
4. The hunger and desire of the squad will be a crucial factor in determining whether United will be able to take the fight down to the wire again. Having reached such giddy heights last May, and with the way they have begun this season, it appears that many of United’s squad are still suffering from a celebratory hangover. This despite the declarations of Sir Alex and players such as Giggs and Hargreaves that they were already thinking of ‘next season’ just a few hours after Moscow.
Judging on the season so far, United’s rivals have displayed far more hunger and fight in their performances. In the loss to Liverpool, United’s players were hurried and hustled to defeat, losing every 50-50 challenge. Have you ever heard a United team being scared? The likes of Cantona, Keane and Bruce would have had a real go at their teammates if they were on the field that day. No wonder Sir Alex likened his team’s performance to that of a Conference side.
If United are to repeat that kind of limp, tame display again in the league, even Hull, Stoke or Albion will be able to punish them. And as their rivals smell blood and fight on with greater hunger, the Premier League trophy will inevitably end its two-year stay at Old Trafford.
5. Title rivals have all strengthened this season and pose a serious threat to United’s crown. The stunning takeover at neighbours City has also presented a true pretender to upsetting the balance of the Big Four. In order to win the league, a team has to dispose of lesser opponents without fuss, as well as better their close rivals in those six-pointers. Last season in six matches against the rest of the Big Four, United recorded four wins, a draw and just one defeat.
In my opinion, United’s greatest challengers are the red half of London. Gunners fans are probably still contemplating a case of ‘what if’ based on the events and effects of that eventful match against Birmingham, that saw Eduardo miss the rest of the season and Gallas signaling with his tears that they had lost the mental capacity to last the title race. The Gunners have started the season in fine form once again and currently head the table above both Chelsea and Liverpool. Wenger’s prudent transfer policy may have reaped handsome dividends as the teamwork and style of play is very much intact despite the departure of Flamini, Hleb and Gilberto. Samir Nasri has fitted in like a fish to water and Theo Walcott has finally come of age. On their day even United will have problems dealing with their free-flowing and eye-catching style of play.
Similar to last season, the Gunners still have a weak squad in terms of numbers, but the Arsenal youngsters look fresh and ready for the kill. If key members of the squad such as Fabregas, Adebayor and van Persie can stay injury-free, the motivation of last season’s failures and their brilliant attacking play may prove sufficient to wrestle the crown from United this time.
Chelsea are many bookmakers’ favourites for the title, especially after having pushed United so close last season. They have started the season well and new signings Deco and Bosingwa have had a seamless integration into the team. Deco in particular has completely changed Chelsea’s midfield play and dare I say, they even look like an attractive side at times. Not to mention Big Phil Scolari, who’s a proven winner and his inspirational presence in the dug-out could prove to be the difference between this season's Chelsea and that of his poker-faced predecessor Avram Grant.
However it is still too early to proclaim that Chelsea is marching straight to the title (not helped by the fact that United are off to another terribly sluggish start). They have only played United amongst the Big Four, and without Deco, their attack lacked imagination against United. Bosingwa also confirmed what many pundits have suspected, that his defending is not as astute as his attacking. Being outrun and outmuscled by the smaller Evra, which led to United’s opening goal, must not have gone down well with Scolari and the Chelsea faithful.
There is no doubt that Chelsea have the force and consistency to grind out results, which is why they will definitely be in the title race right to the end once again. But they do lack the skill of Arsenal in unlocking stubborn teams. Too much praise has been heaped on Deco thus far as well, with his best performances having come against opposition such as Portsmouth and Bordeaux. Let’s not forget that Barcelona were more than willing to sell Deco to Chelsea. That should serve a reminder, but without a doubt the man is a class act.
At this point it seems that if Chelsea can get the best out of their two new stars, then winning the title is a formality. Not so however, because the weakest link in the Chelsea armour, is also their leader. John Terry is the England captain and we all know about his much-lauded heroics and leadership qualities. This has often taken the limelight away from his partner Ricardo Carvalho, who is undoubtedly the better defender. Heroics? The best defenders, from Bobby Moore to Paolo Maldini, have relied more on their positioning and reading of the game, than blatant heroics.
Sir Alex was recently livid about Terry’s suspension being overturned by the FA. The referee who carded him claimed that the foul was more for unsporting behaviour, than being the last man. Terry wrestled his opponent to the ground rugby-style, after he was outpaced. He was at fault for Croatia’s goal in England’s 4-1 win (no one noticed of course because England won), and he has made numerous mistakes in the past two years that have cost Chelsea points. Ignore those tears of the ‘fallen hero of Moscow' and the armband worn so proudly on his biceps. Nothing would be more delightful and a better wake-up call to the Terry camp than the sight of a class striker like Torres or Walcott exposing Terry’s weaknesses to score against Chelsea in a high-profile clash.
We can’t forget Liverpool, can we? Cries grow louder and louder every season that they can finally end their long drought of league titles. Their recent win over United has doubtlessly proved a huge psychological boost to their self-belief. In Torres and Gerrard, they have two players who can win any football match single-handedly, with a stroke of genius in stoppage time. As giants such as Chelsea, Juventus and Inter Milan have witnessed on a European night at Anfield, with the Reds playing with fire and the Kop as the 12th man, Liverpool can be a truly unstoppable force.
But the question is can they do that week in week out? That important victory against United was followed by a scoreless draw at home to…Stoke. Sorry son, but that won’t win you the league. A win against any team, be it Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Wigan or Stoke, is worth three points. At the end of the day it is the points that matters.
To his credit, Rafa Benitez has stopped rotating his lineup, which cost him dearly last season. His willingness to address weaknesses – mainly the lack of width, with the signing of Albert Riera and attacking full-backs Degen and Dossena, are a step in the right direction. Much will depend on the fitness of their deadly duo, and if they approach every game with same desire to win, they will finally be challenging come May. But until then, they've got to beat the Stokes and Hulls that they meet along the way.
Having said all that, a football season never passes without some drama of one sort or the other. Injuries, suspensions, or any event could swing the pendulum of momentum from one team to the next. As for United, the odds are on them fighting every inch of the way to defend their crown, if they DO awaken from their slumber. The season is still very much in its infancy. We could see Kevin Keegan back at Newcastle, Michael Owen partnering Torres, Kaka joining Robinho at Middle Eastlands, or even Manucho ousting Berbatov from United’s starting lineup. As long as United are still within touching distance of the summit (<>
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